Petroleum = Our Temple

The Good Old Days

2007-05-04T01:46:04Z

I was looking back through an old photo album, and found this picture that my wife took in 2002. It's hard to believe gas was ever this cheap!

Idea: Microcurrencies

2007-05-03T20:26:52Z

This just came to mind, thinking about crazy ideas... How about starting a neighborhood microcurrency? You could make it as high tech or as low tech as you want, but it doesn't change the theory.

Low tech:
Print up a bunch of bills (Or some other token) and hand an equal number to each member. When somebody needs help, or use of a tool, or a gallon of gas, or anything, they post it on a central bulletin board with the service/good and how much they're willing to pay somebody for it. If a person ends up with a glut of bills, they can take it a little easier, if somebody's out of bills, they'd better pull their weight, or just drop out of the economy entirely. It makes it easier to help out members in need, also. People can choose to give bills to anybody that they want to. Then, you can help to provide something for which you wouldn't have the skills or materials otherwise. Of course, bartering isn't off limits, but in small communities, you can't always barter for what you need at the time.

Issues:

Trust - All of the members must trust each other. The members should, if unanimous, be able to vote someone out of the economy. At that point, no transactions can or will be performed with the offender either for a predetermined length of time, or permanently. It isn't like Amish shunning, barter should still be possible, just not currency transactions.

Counterfeiting - This ties into trust, but detecting counterfeiting could be difficult. In a small enough community, it should become obvious that a person never does anything, but still has bills. By the time the community gets large enough, there really should be some sort of government in place to handle tracking bills by serial number or somesuch. Come to think of it, using serial numbers and sending a note to all members letting them know the range would work. If the fake bill is outside the range, it's obvious. If it's printed inside the range, you could only put so many into the economy before duplicates started popping up.

New members - if a new member joins, then a number of bills should be printed equal to the number distributed at the start and given to the new member. Of course an updated SN range should be sent to all members.

High Tech:

Easy, store each balance in a database, and tie it into a computer bulletin board. Same rules apply.

I have no idea if this would really work. I'm not even sure how you could run an experiment, as the economy probably needs to reach a certain size before it really operates well.

Just another crazy thought. Feedback is welcomed.

I'm telecommuting and carpooling!

2007-05-02T15:03:20Z

Working in programming has its perks. My boss just approved two telecommuting days a week! Also, a neighbor and co-worker of mine was able to change his schedule, so we're carpooling the other three days. That, combined with basic hypermiling should reduce my gasoline usage to about 20% of pre-shock. My gas budget has dropped to $50/month or about 12 gallons a month! As long as there aren't shortages, I'm set. There will be shortages though, and then I'll have to cut farther. I imagine that inflation is going to be a real problem soon, so I liquidated my retirement funds today. I'm looking at a nice parcel of riverside land between Macon and Augusta. It's close enough to bug out to when things get too crazy here, has a river nearby, and a built residence onsite. It seems like a better retirement bet than my Roth right now. Good thing I'm telecommuting today. I was about to go to the store this morning, when the car wouldn't start. Wouldn't you know, some psycho siphoned all of my gas! I'm within walking distance of a gas station, but it was still annoying. I'm going to have to rig up some sort of lock on my gas tank.

Worldwide Community

2007-05-02T14:06:38Z

I posted this earlier, but lirath1 asked me to repost it, and I think that it's especially important now. It's a collaborative map so that we can keep track of everyone's location. Create a profile and add yourself to the map. Maybe if we can find others nearby, we can create some real communities within our virtual one. After all, everything's about to become a lot more local. Remember, think globally, act locally!

http://www.wayfaring.com/maps/show/36169

Misinformation Technology

2007-05-01T17:47:21Z

I have a feeling that we're going to be seeing a lot more of this sort of thing in the near future. This video describes an engine that runs "only on water" Hooray! We've been saved! I can drop by the lake and fill up my Hummer on the way home! How does this work, you might ask? Why through their "unique electrolysis process" of course. But wait, doesn't that require electricity? Well... Yes. And where would that electricity come from? Ummm, well, mostly coal, oil, and gas. It's misinformation like this that got us in this mess, and it will continue to give false hope to those who don't know any better. It's up to us to keep people educated so we can concentrate on the REAL solutions.

Food, Glorious Food

2007-05-01T01:46:01Z

I got back from the store. I went ahead and doubled up on Jeffrey Yago's $25 10-day survival pack. Since we don't know when gas will become scarce, better to have some supplies in case we run out on the road. I also bought a good amount of tuna fish and tuna helper with some sterno canisters. It won't go bad for a while, and all you need is water (and heat) to cook it up. The prices don't seem that high in the stores yet. It'll probably take a week as they get new shipments in and diesel starts catching up with gasoline. I thought about getting an extra freezer, but if I can't count on the grid, I'll just end up with spoiled meat. Better stick with canned food for emergency rations. Hopefully market pressures will force the local grocer to start carrying local foods from the surrounding farms, but I don't know if enough is available to support half a million people. Do you think I could sell my house in a week?

Atlanta Beyond Oil

2007-04-30T15:55:16Z

Well, I just joined my first meetup group. Atlanta Beyond Oil seems to be fairly active, with meetups on a regular basis. Anyway, I posted to their mailing list about WWO. Hopefully I'll get some connections here in Atlanta. Feeling kinda lonely so far :)

It's the End Of the World as We Know It (and I Feel Fine)

2007-04-30T15:04:45Z

Ok, just got word of the re-negotiations of oil futures contracts. Not good. Not good at all. Driving to work today, I saw some guys out changing the numbers at the gas station. You know that they're going to get a lot of grief. It's not their fault. For the most part, they're just making an honest living. At lunch, I'm going to go get on the waiting list for a hybrid. By the time the list gets to me, there won't be any question of whether hybrids are cost effective. I just hope that they haven't shut down the factories by then. In the meantime, I think I'll try some hypermiling. Hopefully, I'll get a good 25% increase in MPG. Maybe enough to offset the current increases. I have to stop by the grocery store after work. I'll let you know how food prices are going here in Atlanta. Hang in there guys, this is just the beginning.

Later,
Rumpletoe

Creeepy

2007-04-27T21:10:53Z

Look at this picture:

Now look at this one:

Rotate it a little bit. They look extremely similar to me.

Now, take the fact that the name of the image is mtg-granda.

I looked up Granda & Colombia in Google, and I find Rodrigo Granda, a leader in the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia–People's Army, a guerilla group. Could Rico have been meeting with Granda in Colombia? Colombia's neighbor Venezuela happens to be a member of OPEC as well. Could we be talking about a revolution of the proletariat? What better way to pull off a revolution than to remove the means of production (oil) from the supposed bourgeoisie (industrialized nations). It levels the playing field. The vast majority of us will have to rely on labor, becoming proletariat ourselves. It's a scary thought that someone might be following an ideology at such a cost, and be able to pull it off...

Reading back over this, it seems kind of crazy in a New World Order sort of way, but I'll post it anyway. After all, we're living in crazy times.

Thrive

2007-04-27T14:30:24Z

colt_becker had the thought of seeing the interstates filled with bikes. Well, here it is! The other funny thing is that several of the events in this commercial could happen in a world without oil. An article remembering obesity, mini-sized meals, organic apple vendors, and 24 hour libraries. There may be the slightest silver lining to this thunderhead.

Biodiesel calculations

2007-04-26T17:29:26Z

I've been doing some calculations regrading generating biodiesel. I'll spare the gory details, but here are my conclusions.

60 gallons of biodiesel can be produced per acre (annually).

8.3 gallons of diesel are necessary per acre for harvesting and processing.

To generate enough electricity via diesel generator, you need another 8.2 gallons

That leaves 43.5 gallons of biodiesel surplus.

The problem comes from the 1.7 Mcf of natural gas per acre necessary to process the soybeans.

If you were to use biogas, you would need 445 acres of grazing land to support 89 cows to produce enough biogas to process one acre of biodiesel.

That means that 446 acres are necessary to create a 43.5 gallon surplus per year.

You would get milk and meat from the cows, and 43.5 gallons of gas all year.

Not exactly a replacement for our current usage rate, but it COULD run itself with a little left over.

I'm calling this feasible!

Pros and cons of 100% biodiesel

2007-04-26T16:41:04Z

Advantages

B100 can be produced from renewable, domestic resources.
B100 is energy efficient. (The total fossil fuel energy efficiency of biodiesel is 320% vs. 83% for petroleum diesel.) (National Biodiesel Board, 1998)
B100 can be used directly in most diesel engine applications.
B100 can reduce global warming and tailpipe emissions (-41%) (Hill, Nelson, Tilman, Polasky, & Tiffany, 2006).
B100 is nontoxic and biodegradable.
B100 is a good solvent and may clean out fuel line and tank sediments. (Note that this may result in fuel filter clogging during initial use.)

Limitations

B100 contains approximately 8% less energy per gallon.
B100 generally has a higher cloud and pour point (will freeze at a higher temp) than conventional diesel.
B100 is not compatible with some hose and gasket materials, which may cause them to soften, degrade, and rupture.
B100 is not compatible with some metals and plastics.
B100 may increase nitrogen oxide emissions.

The most common method used to overcome the limita-
tions of B100 is called “blending.” Blending biodiesel with
diesel to produce B20 (20% biodiesel), B5 (5% biodiesel),
and B1 (1% biodiesel) retains many of the advantages of
biodiesel while overcoming some of its limitations.

The Slavic Language solved!

2007-04-25T20:37:57Z

I sent an email to Dr. Ronelle Alexander at Berkeley hoping that she could help us with our little conundrum, and she came through! She informed me that the language being spoken is Bulgarian, and she's even forwarding the clip to a native speaker to hopefully translate!

Thanks Dr. Alexander!

New Collaborative Map

2007-04-25T17:22:31Z

I set up a map called worldwithoutoil over at wayfaring.com. Please add yourself or any other info. It's open to everyone for editing!

http://www.wayfaring.com/maps/show/36169

The Nico Video

2007-04-25T13:17:23Z

Scary stuff. Seems like Nico isn't in on this alone, and his comrades know Grace's Mom... Half of the video is in Kyrgyz, so I found some people running blogs in Kyrgyzstan and sent them emails asking for help. It's weird emailing complete strangers, but it's the only thing I could think to do. Hopefully I'll see some responses. I also certainly hope that Grace's Mom is all right. Does anyone know if she's gone to meet with Nico yet?

For Statistics Junkies

2007-04-24T19:08:44Z

The previous document points to the following website for up to date petroleum statistics. It has just about everything you want to know. Just get past the pro-oil propaganda. By the way, this site makes the statement that Saudi Arabia is the ONLY major oil producing nation that's not at capacity. If that's not scary, I don't know what is!

http://www.api.org/statistics/

Also,

http://www.eia.doe.gov/

US Energy Assurance Guidelines for states

2007-04-24T18:45:33Z

Here's the closest analog to the UK plan posted by mpathytest. Notice how they love the phrase "Energy Assurance". As if they had the ability to assure energy delivery. HA!

http://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/docs/prepare/EAGuidelines.pdf

Oil - Modern WAR GOD

2007-04-24T16:04:05Z

An interesting article from 1936 on the beginnings of oil as a war resource.

Best quote:

But harmless petroleum, like Dr. Jekyll, has undergone a startling transformation. Oil may yet be the means whereby the flaming torch of war is carried across the world.

Wake Forest achieves 6% efficient plastic solar panels

2007-04-24T15:41:12Z

Plastic solar cell efficiency breaks record from PhysOrg.com

The global search for a sustainable energy supply is making significant strides at Wake Forest University as researchers at the university’s Center for Nanotechnology and Molecular Materials have announced that they have pushed the efficiency of plastic solar cells to more than 6 percent.

[...]

I don't have a plan :(

2007-04-24T03:10:59Z

Ok, I've been avoiding dealing with the concrete facts. It's all well and good to discuss why this is happening, But with the date a week away, I have to decide what I'm going to actually DO. I realize that I'm pretty darn dependent on oil. Living in Atlanta doesn't help. You have to drive just about everywhere you go. I'm lucky enough to be less than a mile from the grocery store. I could walk if I needed to. There's a lot of farming that goes on outside the city, so hopefully the store would start buying some things locally. With Summer coming, it's going to be really, really hot. We get occasional brown-outs as it is. I imagine that we'll get full-on black-outs with no oil. Getting to work will be difficult. I need to get my hands on a bicycle. It's a 10 mile ride. I guess that's one way to lose weight, eh? Will I even have a job? I work at a university, and I would hope that the government wouldn't gut education and research for more immediate needs. My wife would have to quit working. She works about 30 miles away, but then we couldn't afford the mortgage... The problems seem to keep running deeper the more I think about them. Now I'm scared.

Assuming the fetal position,
Rumpletoe

Post-Oil Supplies

2007-04-23T18:53:34Z

I keep coming back to this online store. I wouldn't normally post a commercial site, but I haven't seen anything else like it. It originally sold to the local Amish communities, and has everything you need to keep a household running without electricity:

http://www.lehmans.com/

A List

2007-04-23T15:58:01Z

How do I love Oil, let me count the ways:

Gasoline
Motor Oil
Fertilizers
Plastics
Gas for heating and cooking
Fresh food from around the globe
The latest techno-gadget
Electricity for lighting and entertainment
Water pumped straight to my sink
My favorite books delivered to my door
My morning shower
Living outside town and working in town
Cheap clothing from China
The extra cash to live in a nice house

Please add your own!

When is (was) the peak?

2007-04-23T14:52:15Z

I've been asked by my friends over at WWO when I think oil is going to peak. I'm far from being an oil expert, but over at the Association for the Study of Peak Oil, they've been publishing projections for several years now in their newsletter. Here's the latest:

As you can see, they claim that regular oil peaked in 2005. Although the other forms of oil will take quite a while to peak, All global petroleum will still peak in only 4 years. Also, remember that oil companies have a long track record of fudging their true reserves, so this is a gross estimate. It could take 10 years, or happen next week. (like April 30th, maybe?) Regardless, I think that if we act as though we have already peaked, then we'll be especially well prepared if it takes 10 years. Unfortunately, governments around the world are putting their blinders on and assuming the status quo will continue. It's up to us to do what the government won't and try to ease the pain of this transition.

Rumpletoe out.

Solar Research at Georgia Tech

2007-04-20T20:13:56Z

Just got word that a new design for "3-D" solar panels has been created over here at GTRI. I think research will need to be a HUGE priority in the coming months.

3D Solar Cells Boost Efficiency While Reducing Size, Weight and Complexity

Begin at the End

2007-04-20T18:26:03Z

I just found out about the dreaded April 30th deadline. I wish I had known sooner, I would have been more prepared. Being a good little suburbanite, I'm starting to wonder what's in store for me... Perhaps the connections here will help. As long as I can gain access to the Internet, I'll be reporting on the state of affairs here in ATL. I'll also be elaborating on the measures I take in the hopes that it might help somebody else. One thing I do know, is that community is key. In the absence of resources, either cooperation or chaos exists. I'm hoping for the former... Rumpletoe signing out.